Stewart-Peterson Market Commentary

Closing Commentary - September 25, 2018

Top Farmer Midday Update 9-25-18

CORN: Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning, falling off of a nice jump in prices earlier this morning. The nearby Dec contract is down 1-1/2 cents to 3.59 and Mar is down 1-1/2 to 3.71. Dec corn traded as high this morning as 3.64-1/4 as solid demand news continues to trickle into news lines. However, short-term news of better crop conditions ramping up harvest activity is now pressuring the market. Buying interest has lightened up this morning after prices pushed through the overhead trend line resistance, but prices have been able to hold onto their 20-day moving average support level.

SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are moderately higher this morning, but have retraced much of the morning's gains. The Nov contract is up 4-1/2 cents to 8.45-1/2, and Jan is up 4-1/4 cents to 8.59-1/2. Nov beans reached as high this morning as 8.58 as found traders covered some short positions and unwound some soybean/wheat spreads. In addition, the oil world is expecting Argentina to buy 60-70 million bushels of U.S. beans to replenish supplies previously shipped to China. However, early harvest results have shown big yield numbers and crop conditions continue to improve.

WHEAT: Wheat futures are moderately lower this morning, finding selling pressure on spread unwinding and new speculative selling. Dec Chi wheat is down 7-1/2 cents to 5.19-1/2, Dec KC wheat is down 6-1/4 to 5.22-3/4, and Dec Mpls wheat is down 3-1/4 to 5.81. Wheat plantings are running well ahead of last year and slightly ahead of the average pace. Exports are running 29% behind last year's pace with the USDA currently forecasting a 14% increase, yet another fundamental development scaring speculative money at this point. Bullish traders are still out there due to expectations for slowing Russian exports which should benefit the wheat export picture.

CATTLE: Cattle futures are mixed this morning following a bearish Cold Storage report released yesterday afternoon. Oct lives are down 12 cents to 112.05, Dec lives are down 2 cents to 116.97, and Feb lives are steady at 121.30. Oct and Dec contracts tested and failed to move above their 10-day moving average support levels. This moving average was previously support, and thus momentum has turned lower. Feb futures have held onto their 10-day moving average support for the most part. Beef values have been a major fundamental support, closing yesterday at their highest level since September 10.

HOGS: Hog futures are up this morning, with Oct up 90 cents to 61.90, Dec steady at 56.97, and Feb up 15 cents to 65.60. Pork cutout values are at their highest level since July 23 and cash hog values are rallying as well. Gains in the nearby contracts are due to the production hiccup from Hurricane Florence while support is seen in deferred contracts from the potential long-term effects of African swine fever in China.




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