Oil (CLN25) prices have been caught in a tug of war in 2025, with planned OPEC+ supply hikes and weakening demand concerns weighing on crude. On the other end, geopolitical tensions provide support. 

In the midst of it all, Colombia-based GeoPark (GPRK) stands tall. This Latin America-focused oil explorer and operator continues to beat expectations with strong production and operational gains. For investors seeking to ride oil’s next leg higher without taking a wild bet, this under-the-radar stock could be the smartest buy right now. 

About GeoPark Stock

Founded in 2002, GeoPark (GPRK) has carved out its place in Latin America’s energy landscape, exploring and producing oil and natural gas (NGN25) across Colombia, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. With a current market cap of $385 million, the company navigates volatile terrain with a seasoned footprint.

While GPRK shares have dropped 35% from their YTD high of $11.67, momentum is stirring. The stock has climbed nearly 11% over the past month, rallying over 5% on June 10, hinting at renewed investor confidence amid operational progress.

From a valuation lens, GeoPark looks like a bargain, trading at just 6.38x forward earnings and 0.56x sales, below industry averages.

Digging Into GeoPark’s Q1 Earnings Report

GeoPark’s Q1 2025 earnings results, released on May 7, were mixed, displaying operational strength, even amid volatility. The Latin American oil explorer generated revenue of $137.3 million, down 18% year over year, while EPS slipped 54% annually to $0.25. 

At the heart of the quarter was production strength. GeoPark averaged 36,000 barrels per day, beating its 35,000-barrel guidance, driven by stable performance in Colombia and Ecuador, and a breakout showing in Argentina. In February, its Vaca Muerta blocks hit a record high, churning out 17,358 barrels per day - a major leap for the company’s Argentine foothold. 

Still, delayed drilling in Colombia and Brent price (CBQ25) volatility weighed on the quarter’s bottom line. 

Despite the turbulence, GeoPark’s fundamentals stood firm. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 13% sequentially to $88 million, operating costs dropped to $12.30 per barrel, and the company held over $308 million in cash with a lean 0.9x net leverage ratio. In Q1, GeoPark returned $7.5 million to shareholders via dividends, reinforcing its focus on value creation. The company projects a $30 million annualized payout in 2025, targeting a strong 9% dividend yield. 

GeoPark has secured solid downside protection, hedging around 70% of its anticipated 2025 pro forma output - including Vaca Muerta volumes - at floor prices between $68 and $70 per barrel. It is a strategic move that reflects foresight, insulating operations from oil market swings while charting a steady course forward.

Analysts tracking the oil and gas explorer project its Q2 earnings to be $0.20 per share. Looking further ahead to fiscal 2025, EPS is anticipated to be $1.14. 

What Do Analysts Expect for GeoPark Stock?

GPRK has a unanimous “Strong Buy” rating from the two analysts covering the stock. The average analyst price target for the oil stock is $9.75, indicating potential upside of 34.1%. The Street-high target price of $10.50 suggests this penny stock could rally as much as 44.4%. Given that all analysts in coverage have “Strong Buy” ratings, it has the highest aggregate rating as tracked by Barchart. However, investors should be aware that it has far fewer analysts in coverage than other, more popular oil and gas stocks.